Often football commentators like to describe a matchup of a high-powered offense (Green Bay, New England) against an elite defense (Baltimore, New York Jets) as “the unstoppable force meets the immovable object“. When the Jaguars’ offense takes the field against the Ravens defense on Monday night it WILL NOT be one of those matchups. Instead, the Football Outsiders (FO) #32 ranked offense (the imminently stoppable force) will face off against FOs #1 ranked defense (the immovable object) and I’d expect total domination to ensue.
In order to appreciate this perspective its beneficial to put these rankings in context, we’ll begin with the Ravens defense. The Baltimore defense has allowed almost 30% less offense against a hypothetical average opponent than an average NFL defense. The second ranked defense (New York Jets) has only allowed ~15% less offense given the same circumstances. This difference of ~15% between #1 and #2 is equal to the difference between the #2 and #12 ranked defenses.
Meanwhile the Jaguars offense has particularly poor. The Gabbert led Jags have gained almost 30% less yards against a hypothetical league average defense than an average offense. Combining these statistics we should expect the Ravens defense to be truly dominant on Monday night limiting the Jags to 60% less yards than an average NFL offense would accumulate against an average NFL defense. With potential domination appropriately captured lets move to the bullets: