In the spirit of Jimmy the Greek, we’re going to offer you some stone cold Superbowl XLVI locks, or, just some spurious guesses based on cursory analysis and casual observation. Either way, this being Baltimore, we thought we’d hear from our favorite wholesale narcotics importer: the man known simply as “The Greek.”
Greek’s 2011/2012 Record ATS: 37-39-2
Greetings Readers. Are you ready for the Big Game? I assume that it’s being met with disdain by most who grace these pages given the geographical skew. Anyhow, 2-2 for Championship Sunday, nailing the game lines, but coming up short on the over/unders. Despite the push I’m still sitting at a 67% clip over the last 5 weeks (15-7-1) and have a chance to bring the season over .500. I’ll be giving you my thoughts on the game line, the over/under and some of my favorite prop bets.
Is this a homer pick? Yes and no. If you’ve read my column you know I am a Giants season
ticket holder (thanks for nothing SB XLVI ticket lottery) and therefore my natural bias in this game will go in the direction of Big Blue. However, I have picked against the Giants before (not often). The Ravens showed what a great defense can do against New England. The Giants defense, while not Baltimore, has been playing extremely well and hasn’t allowed more than 20 points in the playoffs. This includes a game against Green Bay and the Discount Double Check at Lambeau. The front 4 can get to Brady, Gronkowski is hobbled and the Giants just seem to have the Pats number. In the Week 9 win at New England the Giants offense was also without Nicks, Bradshaw and center Davis Baas. Indy is a fast field and that should be a benefit to the Giants with guys like Cruz, Bradshaw, Nicks and the Giants front 4. I think the Patriots are favored because of Belichick and Brady. It’s tough to pick against them in the Superbowl, but the Giants are the better team right now. If the Pats are to win it’ll come down to their signature field goal way of getting it done. You’ve got the insurance in that case with the Gmen getting 3.
Everything in this game seems to be screaming OVER. The teams combine to go 22-15 on the over if you include the playoff numbers. Manning is playing on another level. The Patriots drop 30 on the scoreboard with regularity. The turf at Indy is conducive to a lot of quick strikes and points. Why am I going under? Quietly (much more so in New
England than in New York) the defenses have been stepping up. The Giants defense has given up 2 (really zero), 20 and 17 in their three playoff games. New England has given up 10 and 20 in their two contests. Everyone is talking about Brady vs. Manning. Time for the defense to show up just a little.
Lebron James Points Against Raptors +.5 over New England Patriots Total Points
James gets to his 29.7 ppg average. The Giants defense holds the Pats under 30.
Eli Manning over 310.5 Passing Yards
This is kind of a hedge against the under play above.
Rob Gronkowski under 80.5 receiving yards
The guy is a beast, but if that ankle is anything like Ben Roethlisberger’s was then I can’t see him making sharp cuts at all. He would make for a fantastic decoy, especially in the red zone.
Aaron Hernandez over 66.5 receiving yards
Brady still loves throwing to his TE and his 1A man-crush is Hernandez. He’ll pick up his usual 50 yards, but most likely add another 20+ that would have gone to a non hobbled Gronkowski
Team To Have Longest Kickoff Return-New England Patriots
I have no idea what the true stat is, but I sat through almost every Giants kickoff return this year and they all seem to end up at the 23. The Pats have to do better than that, no?
For the Roulette black/red type wagerers out there
Heads, Giants Win the Toss, Jersey Number of Player with first TD Under 86.5,
And One For Fun
New York Giants Adjusted Line -14.5 (+715)
This means on a $100 wager you’d win $715 if the Giants covered the 14.5
Jim Broderick can be harassed about his picks via Twitter @jimmyfromjc