The annotated WPA Graph for Week 13 is shown above. The graph is taken from NFL Advanced Stats, while the annotations are ours. If you are new to WPA graphs please see our WPA Reader’s Guide. The biggest plays in terms of WPA for the game came with 6:05 remaining in the 3rd Quarter. After sacking Joe Flacco and causing him to fumble, the Browns drove down to the Ravens 3 yard line and then opted to kick a field goal. On the first play of the Ravens ensuing offensive possession Ray Rice ran for 67 yards, putting the Ravens in a position where they had a greater than 95% chance of winning the game.
- In terms of winning percentage added the offense was led by Ray Rice and Ricky Williams. Their efforts contributed as much to this win (.28 WPA) as Colt McCoy’s awfulness (-.25 WPA). Combined the Baltimore running backs and the Browns QB put the Ravens in position to win despite a ho-hum day by Joe Flacco (0.00 WPA).
- Jimmy Smith was the most valuable defender in the game according to winning percentage added. Smith’s interception along with the low success rate the Browns had when attempting to pass against Smith resulted in a defense best (.14 WPA).
- With Sunday’s win the Ravens now are a virtual lock to make the playoffs and the odds on favorite to win the division. Coolstandings.com gives Baltimore a 99.5% chance of making the playoffs and a 75.5% chance of winning the AFC North.
- It would appear as if most people are unaware that Baltimore is in the driver’s seat of the AFC North. On his weekly podcast ESPN’s “The Sports Guy”, Bill Simmons, alluded several times to an all but certain Baltimore at Denver matchup in the AFC Wild Card round of the playoffs. Simmons of course felt Denver would emerge victorious. In reality, this game (regardless of outcome) is really unlikely. Baltimore would have to be a wild card playoff team (24% chance) and Denver would have to win the AFC West (53% chance). Some quick math shows this Simmons’ clandestine matchup has about a 10% chance of happening. Not bloody likely Billy.